In this LAB note
Question · Hypothesis · Method · Results · What Failed · What We Learned · What Changed at MOMS
Question
Does a shake's Goal name predict its protein content, or do body type and protein-ingredient choice predict it better?
Hypothesis
We expected our "Strength & Protein Recovery" goal — the only one of 28 goal names in our system that names protein directly — to reliably out-protein other goals on a recipe-by-recipe basis, not just as a group average.
Method
External check: McKeon and Hallman (Rutgers, 2019) surveyed foods carrying front-of-package protein claims across a 330,000-product database and found that even when a nutrient is named in a claim or category, that naming does not cleanly track the magnitude of the actual difference in content — claims move with product category more than with grams delivered. Internal analysis: we pulled Protein (g) for all 201 MOMS recipes, grouped by Goal (28 distinct names) and by BT (8 body types), and read the protein-source ingredient text for each recipe. We ranked the 30 highest-protein recipes in the database and checked which Goal, BT, and protein ingredient each came from. We also pulled USDA FoodData Central values for chicken breast (FDC 171534, cooked/grilled: ~30.5 g protein/100 g) and cooked lentils (FDC 172421: ~9.0 g protein/100 g) to check whether ingredient identity could explain the pattern mechanically.
Results
Grouped by Goal, "Strength & Protein Recovery" does win: its five recipes average 36.7 g of protein, the highest of all 28 goal names in the system, ahead of "Recovery & Immune Calm" (34.8 g, n=2) and the 33.0 g average across all 201 recipes. But the group average hides a 16.3 g spread inside that same goal — from 31.9 g (Rebuild & Rise, WAI-W2-PROTEIN-003-V1, protein slot: Chicken 90g alone) up to 48.2 g (Muscle Renew, WAI-W2-PROTEIN-008-V1, Chicken 150g) — wider than the 2.7 g gap separating the goal's average from the next-best goal. Body type explains more of that spread than the goal name does: WAI and WAY together are 24.8% of all 201 recipes but 63.4% of the 30 highest-protein recipes in the database. The protein ingredient matters too: Chicken appears in the protein slot of 25.9% of all recipes but 63.3% of the top 30, and recipes built on Chicken average 34.5 g of protein against 32.5 g for recipes that aren't — consistent with chicken breast's roughly 3x protein density per gram versus cooked lentils. Nine of the ten single highest-protein recipes in the whole database carry goal names that never mention protein or strength at all — Light & Vital Renewal, Hydration & Core Balance, Cool Down & Detox, Nourishment & Antioxidant Recharge.
What Failed
The goal-name hypothesis only half held. On average, "Strength & Protein Recovery" is legitimately our highest-protein goal — that part is not just marketing. But it fails at the individual-recipe level, which is the level a customer actually eats at: Rebuild & Rise, a recipe carrying the "Protein Recovery" name, delivers less protein (31.9 g) than all ten of the single highest-protein recipes in our system — nine of which carry goal names that make no protein claim at all. A customer served one specific "Protein Recovery" recipe cannot assume it out-proteins a customer served "Hydration & Core Balance."
What We Learned
A name attached to a goal, ingredient category, or food product can hold true on average and still mislead at the individual level — the same disconnect McKeon and Hallman found between front-of-package protein claims and actual nutrient delivery in packaged food. For us, body type and protein-ingredient identity predict an individual recipe's protein grams far more reliably than the Goal label a customer sees.
What Changed at MOMS
We no longer let a Goal name stand in for a protein guarantee. Any recipe assigned to a nutrient-specific Goal (like "Strength & Protein Recovery") now gets checked against its own Protein (g) value and its body type's typical range before it's presented to a customer as protein-forward — and where the protein slot doesn't include an animal-protein ingredient like Chicken, we flag the recipe for a second look rather than assuming the Goal name covers it.
References
McKeon G, Hallman W. Characterization and Comparative Analysis of Foods with Front-of-Package Protein Claims (P04-149-19). Current Developments in Nutrition. 2019;3(Suppl 1):nzz051.P04-149-19. doi:10.1093/cdn/nzz051.P04-149-19 | USDA FoodData Central. FDC ID 171534, Chicken, broiler or fryers, breast, meat only, cooked, grilled; FDC ID 172421, Lentils, mature seeds, cooked, boiled, without salt.
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